An Early Outlook for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, and the Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through November 30. In early April, weather experts begin making predictions about the upcoming hurricane season.

Predictions this early are correct only about 50 percent of the time; as the season approaches, the predictions become more accurate, according to The Weather Channel Senior Hurricane Specialist Brian Norcross.

Two Suppressing Factors in 2014

In Norcross’ April 9 hurricane report, he explains that there are two important factors weather analysts can use to predict upcoming storm activity. This year, these factors are playing out as follows:

• Water temperature – Norcross explains that the water temperatures on the far side of the Atlantic, next to Africa, are cooler than average. Cooler temperatures in that area (where many storms develop) are not conducive to hurricanes.
• Air temperature – In the Pacific Ocean, the forecast is for warmer-than-normal water temperatures. Pacific waters will warm the surrounding air, which then may turn into upper-level winds that travel east, making conditions unfavorable for hurricanes to develop in the Atlantic. This is known as the El Nino effect.

Because these two determining factors have the potential to suppress hurricane development, experts believe the 2014 season will be comparatively mild.

Early 2014 Storm Predictions

After taking all the factors into consideration, Norcross predicts the following:

• Named storms – there will be 11 named storms in the 2014 season, one fewer than average.
• Hurricanes – he predicts that five hurricanes will develop, which is one fewer than average.
• Strong hurricanes – finally, he predicts that two of the five hurricanes will be strong (Category 3 or more), which, again, is one fewer than average.

Keeping Abreast of Weather Conditions

It’s essential for mariners and boaters to stay informed of climate predictions and keep their eyes on weather at all times. You need to have a plan in place for returning quickly to safe harbor at any time during hurricane season.

There are a few reliable ways to stay abreast of marine forecasts and tides, including:

• the National Weather Service's (NWS) Marine Forecasts website;
• weather updates via phone recordings (check your local Commerce Department for the National Weather Service phone number);
• the "Dial-A-Buoy" service (a free service provided by the National Buoy Data Center where mariners can call 888-701-8992 and get updates on “wind direction, speed, gust, significant wave height, swell and wind-wave heights and periods, air temperature, water temperature, and sea level pressure”);
• email reports from the NWS; and
• listening to NOAA Weather Radio.

Unfortunately, there is no single rule of thumb mariners can use to steer completely clear of poor weather. When all is said and done, all you can really do is take any and all necessary precautions and stay in the know about changing weather patterns.

Material of Interest to Mariners

In addition to the above resources, mariners and boaters may find the My Vessel Logs blog an excellent source of interesting and helpful information.

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